Now 2012. Sigh....

It looks like California Equality's attempt to put gay marriage back on the ballot is dead until at least 2012. I think this is unfortunate, and probably unwise from a political perspective.

A recent poll in California found that almost a solid majority approve of gay marriage:

Among the biggest changes in attitude was the increasing support for gay marriage, now favored by 49 percent of Californians and opposed by 44 percent. In 1977, voters were opposed by a 62-to-31 percent ratio.

The understandable outrage in both the LGBT community and, surprisingly, in much of the straight community following the "leadership's" failed "strategy" for beating Proposition 8 has created a backlash of support for gay marriage following the November referendum. Waiting until 2o12 to capitalize on this backlash is a mistake.

The main reason skipping 2010 is a mistake in my mind is because President Obama is not on the ballot in 2010. Had Hillary Clinton been on the 2008 ballot instead of Obama, Proposition 8 may well have failed. Ironically, it is probable that Obama's astronomical African-American turnout in November likely tipped the scales against gay marriage, since African-Americans in California are exceedingly likely to oppose gay marriage (by a 70-30 margin). I can't see how Obama is doing anything to cause his African-American base to desert him in the next presidential election. And when African-Americans show up to vote for Obama, they will largely stick around to vote against reinstating gay marriage.

If, however, Obama isn't on the ballot to ratchet up African-American turnout, a measure reinstating gay marriage has a better chance of passing. (I acknowledge that if Obama isn't on the ballot, fewer younger people will vote, and fewer younger people means fewer votes for gay marriage, but I think the Obama differential with respect to the African-American vote is stronger here than with respect to the youth vote).

This is the problem with the LGBT civil rights leadership outside of New England legislatures and Iowa courthouses at this time: there is a continued, fundamental misreading of the particular states' electorates. In 2008, organizers in California were afraid to humanize gay people, and were actually afraid to articulate the word "gay," thus giving credence to fence-sitters' uneasiness. In 2009, organizers believe they still have work to do to persuade voters, and they won't be ready to put gay marriage to a vote by 2010 -- when actual persuasion itself could have been sufficient back in 2008 even given the Obama effect. And so, having learned the wrong lesson, they'll wait until 2012, when Obama is back on the ballot, to try it again.

Don't get me wrong: I believe everyone is persuadable, and that the trends are moving in our direction. We may well win this battle in 2012. I just don't have confidence in our self-anointed political leadership to understand what people are thinking, and to understand how to craft an effective message to those people, and when the optimal time is to send that message. I have to hope they're getting closer, but we aren't there yet. I guess I should be glad that there are three more years between now and then.